A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses something to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
